Research 3–5 emerging trends in {{industry}} likely to shape the next 3 years.
For each trend:
- **Trend** — one sentence
- **Evidence today** — what's already measurable (funding flows, adoption numbers, regulatory signals, talent moves)
- **The bull case** — what would have to be true for this to be a 10x phenomenon
- **The bear case** — what would have to be true for this to fizzle
- **Confidence: high / medium / low** — and why
- **Earliest signal to watch** — the specific metric/event that would move our confidence
Output:
## Top trends
[for each trend, the structure above]
## What's overhyped right now (anti-trends)
2–3 things that are getting talked about but where the evidence doesn't support the narrative yet. Useful for not chasing.
## Implications for {{our company / our team}}
- Which trends, if they happen, change our strategy
- Which trends are interesting but irrelevant for us
- Which trends compound (one enables the others)
## Sources
Numbered, with dates and URLs. No claim without a source.
## What I'd watch monthly
A short list of dashboards, newsletters, or reports that would tell us if the trend is accelerating, plateauing, or reversing.
Hard rules:
- Distinguish "evidence" (measurable today) from "narrative" (what people are saying about it)
- Date every signal cited
- Flag your own confidence honestly — "medium" is a respectable answer
- If a trend is "AI will change everything," reject it — that's not a trend, it's a vibestrategytrendsforesight